Happiness in 2012.

The new year is just hours away.



I took this photo in Ueno Park during my recent trip to Japan. The scene has a calming and pleasing effect on me.


Bicycles are important transportation vehicles in Japan. I smiled when I saw this bicycle.


Daibutsu in Kamakura. "If one speaks or acts with pure thoughts, happiness and peace of mind will follow."


This helpful sign outside a shop solicited a

Hyflux: Broke resistance.

On 15 Dec, I said, "Right now, $1.065 is immediate support provided by the 123.6% Fibo line. A stronger support would be at $1.015, the 138.2% Fibo line and a golden ratio."

Hyflux's share price touched $1.015 on 23 Dec, forming a white spinning top at the end of that session. A positive divergence was also formed in the process. A lower low in price and a higher low in the MACD. A buy signal.

A common piece of advice on saving.

I want to say something about a very common piece of advice dished out by many financial advisors and that is to save at least 10% of our take home pay. Now, this is an easy enough one liner but is it easy to put into practice?

For me, however, I have always said that saving even 10% is too little. Of course, everyone's circumstances are different. So, for some, 10% is all they can manage. For

Berkshire Bak Kwa!

Berkshire Hog are known to produce supreme quality gourmet pork. Also known as (KUROBUTA) (Black-pig) in Japan and recognized as WORLD’S BEST PORK.

No hormone or antibiotics are used in the feeding process and natural pork are minimally processed without use of artificial ingredient.

Fragrance is the first Bak Kwa manufacturer in Singapore to introduce the 100% USA Berkshire Pork Bak Kwa.

Tea with AK71: Mechanical car parks.

I am back in Singapore. Got home at 2am and slept at 3am. Woke up at 8am. Unpacked, read the news a bit and replied to comments here in my blog.

Thanks to everyone who sent me well wishes for my trip and apologies to those whom I did not manage to reply to till this morning.

I did not look at the stock market or my blog while I was on holiday in Japan the last 10 days or so. When I looked at

ASSI celebrates second birthday!

In another week, my blog will be two years old. Yes, time flies, doesn't it?

It seems like just a few weeks ago when I started this blog out of curiosity and boredom. Never in my wildest dreams would I have imagined how it would grow into what it is today.



I took this photo almost a year ago with my Samsung camera phone. Still a favourite of mine. Nice blue lights for Christmas!

I will be

ASSI is featured in NextInsight.

Today, ASSI is featured in NextInsight.

Two blog posts on my passive income generated from S-REITs this year have been republished. Comments from three readers as well as my replies are also highlighted.



AK71 is happy. :)
To see the article in NextInsight as well as to find out which three readers and their comments are mentioned in the article, click here.

Drum roll, please. ;)

REITs: Leasehold properties.

I have had quite a few exchanges with readers regarding REITs and their properties' land leases, if any. Readers who follow the comments section of my blog would be aware of this.

After a while, I realise we could just be running through the same points again and again. So, I am putting up my thoughts in a proper blog post written as a reply to a comment by a reader, Marti:

Hi Marti,

Yes,

Capitaland: Rising MACD in weekly chart.

I look at weekly charts when I am interested in the longer term technicals of a particular stock. I got more shares of Capitaland at $2.35 not too long ago. Its price hit a low of $2.25 so far today.

However, as my motivation for being invested in Capitaland is because of its cheap valuation, I am not too concerned with short term price weakness. Of course, I might do a bit of trading if I

Office S-REITs VS. Industrial S-REITs (3).

Earlier this year, I shared some salient points in a research by DTZ.

Update (23 November 2011):

Singapore's office property market has lost its appeal as an investment, according to real estate firm DTZ.

DTZ said demand for office space has declined, and the sector is now considered "cold".

It defines "cold" as property that is more than 5 per cent overpriced, with potential yield below

Hyflux: Continuing downtrend.

My recent decision to go long in Hyflux has turned out poorly. It was a decision heavy on TA and almost nothing FA wise. So, should I cut? Regular readers know that I do not like to cut as prices are declining.

Prices go down a river of hope and I would like to cut on rebounds and if prices should test resistance. If the opportunity does not present itself, then, it is another stock for the

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Accumulate on weakness.

I bought more units of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT today at 93.5c. 

Price touched a low of 93c on relatively high volume today. In the following days, if selling pressure does not let up, we could see the next support at 92c tested. That would bring us back to price levels not seen since December 2009.



Although the MFI and Stochastics both suggest that the REIT is terribly oversold, in

2011 full year passive income from S-REITs.

On 7 Dec, income distribution from AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT was received. It was also the final income distribution to be received from my portfolio of S-REITs this year.

Total income distribution received in 4Q 2011:
S$ 29,040.65.

Add this to S$ 75,785.49 received in the first three quarters of 2011, the grand total for the year 2011 is S$ 104,826.14.



I received more income this

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Capitaland: Bought at $2.35.

Property counters continue to be sold down today. Mr. Market is really worried about the aggressive cooling measures announced by the government, it seems.

What do we do when there is lots of fear and prices are battered down? Ask ourselves if there could be some good stocks we might be able to buy on the cheap. I wondered especially if all property counters are going to be affected to the same

Buying a private property as an owner-occupier? Think like an investor!

This blog post is in response to a comment by a reader, Jaime. See it here.



Hi Jaime,

How to buy a private property for self stay? I am most probably considered an amateur when it comes to buying private properties but I am happy to share my thoughts with you.

Just keep visiting showflats if you want to buy new. Or keep viewing apartments (look through the classifieds in the papers or search

Selling a private property just got harder.

The Singapore government has "imposed an Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) for private property of between 3 per cent and 10 per cent for Singaporeans, Permanent Residents and foreigners to moderate investment demand for private residential property and promote a more stable and sustainable market."  Read article here.

This development is likely to hasten the weakening of private

NOL: Is the worst over?

Despite negative sentiments towards shipping companies, NOL's chart is showing signs of bottoming. If it has not bottomed, it has certainly found a floor and a rather strong one at that.



The long white candle formed today was on the back of relatively high volume. Fibo lines show that $1.175 is a rather strong resistance and if we could overcome this convincingly, next resistance levels are at

Tea with AK71: Macarons from ZUJI.

Today, I got a treat from ZUJI. They sent me a box of six macarons. What are macarons? I know what is macaroni. ;-p


Very nicely boxed and ribboned.

 
Wikipedia says it is "a sweet confectionery made with egg whites, icing sugar, granulated sugar, almond powder and food coloring. The macaron is commonly filled with buttercream or jam filling sandwiched between two cookies."



Letter says to

LMIR: Too cheap to sell.

Some who managed to get a meaningful number of excess rights might be thinking of selling these rights for a quick gain. After all, selling at 36.5c today would mean a capital gain of 5.5c or 17.7%. This is more than 18 months' worth of income distribution from the REIT if we were to use my estimate of 3.26c in annual DPU, post rights and acquisitions.


Personally, I wouldn't sell my rights

Risks, risks and risks.

This blog post is in response to a comment by a reader, Temperament: click here.



Hi Temperament,

With my limited knowledge of trading, I know that true blue traders must be emotionless. They cannot fall in love with anything. They should not hate anything either. They do what the charts tell them to do, when to long, when to short, when to take profit and when to cut loss. So, I don't think

LMIR: Excess rights.

It seems that LMIR's management has the same approach towards excess rights as First REIT's management.



Smaller unitholders would see more of their application filled compared to larger unitholders. I make this statement after exchanging notes with some friends and readers.

For me, excess rights alloted as a percentage of the units I was holding before the rights issue is about 17%. A

Girls, do up your hair!

In my blog post titled "REITs and rights issues: A Singaporean tale", I let my hair down figuratively. Even if I had really wanted to let my hair down, it would have been a challenge since I always cut my hair very short. ;p

For Christmas, there will be Christmas parties to attend, I am sure. Even a reclusive person like me gets invitations. I guess I am not reclusive enough.

Anyway, many would

CitySpring Infrastructure Trust: Worth another look?

In reply to a reader, Rookie, who asked if I would consider investing in CitySpring Infrastructure Trust now:

Hi Rookie,

CitySpring at 33.5c? With a promised annualised DPU of 3.28c, the expected distribution yield is 9.79%. This annualised DPU is, of course, lower than the 4.2c in the preceding year.

The balance sheet of CitySpring has strengthened after its latest rights issue in September

Tea with AK71: Taste of Hong Kong.

Firstly, this has nothing to do with my recent trip to Hong Kong. This happened in Singapore. :)

I was at Illuma and had a new dining experience. Well, it was a new experience to me.



Taste of Hong Kong. Business was good!



Instructions at every table.



Waffle with bonito flakes, luncheon meat and something saucy. I loved it!

Inexpensive comfort food in an air-conditioned environment with

REITs and rights issues: A zero sum game?

There has been a deluge of articles on REITs recently and my own blog posts on the subject have attracted many comments although not as many as the blog post in which I revealed my total passive income from S-REITs for the first nine months of this year. ;p

I received comments from a reader, Chopra, regarding my simplistic analogy given in "REITS and rights issues: A Singaporean tale." Read it

Bought Hyflux and AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT.

My overnight buy order for Hyflux at $1.20 was filled. Looking at the daily chart, it is immediately clear why I put in a buy order at that level. It is support. Even with a confirmation of a reversal signal, we want to buy as close to support as possible. Of course, luck plays a part because in very bullish circumstances, price could have gapped up and gone higher.



A white hammer was formed

Hyflux and Sound Global.

Regular readers know that I invested heavily in Hyflux Water Trust during the last crisis. I was drawn towards its very high distribution yield of some 17% and zero gearing at one stage as well as its very stable businesses. The Trust helped to grow my wealth significantly.


I continue to like the water business and believe that the world will continue to need solutions to water problems. In an

How did AK71 overcome his losses and grow his portfolio?

I get quite a few comments in my blog and some comments require more detailed replies than others. I have decided that for more detailed replies, I should put them up as blog posts from now. This one is in reply to Ray's comment here.

Hi Ray,

Actually, when I finally fully divested from CitySpring, I did not lose money.

See: CitySpring Infrastructure Trust: Thoughts on divestment.

I was also

The Muppets movie!

Jim Henson created the Muppets in the mid-1950s and The Muppet Show ran from 1976-1981.

The Muppets have long been known for their big musical numbers and Disney’s The Muppets movie not only maintains the tradition but also takes it to new levels with original songs, audience favorites and signature classic covers.

This is the first Muppets movie in 12 years and throughout the whole filming

REITs and rights issues: A Singaporean tale.

Some readers told me I should let my hair down and try blogging with a more local flavour. Should I try to inject some local flavour into my blog? Hmmm...

REITs have been getting a lot of attention lately and, generally, I think it is a good thing. However, I would like to see more balanced write ups which would do the subject justice.

Recently, another article in the newspapers was brought to

Bearish or bullish? Listen to experts?

Towards end of the year, often investors look forward to a run up in share prices. Some look forward to the Capricorn Effect which is expected to happen at the start of the new year. Could it happen again or would the mountain trekking herbivore do a disappearing act?


Personally, I am sticking to my plan of holding on to dividend generating investments and not adding unless compelling value is

CLINIQUE Special Deals!

Some time back, I revealed that I use hand moisturisers.

See blog post here: Should guys use hand moisturisers?

That blog post received quite a few comments in the affirmative. Yes, why not?

While surfing at an online shop for good deals, I came across this:

CLINIQUE Dramatically Different Moisturising Lotion ( Unboxed ) 200ml/6.7oz
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An article on REITs by Colin Tan.

A reader, Ray, brought to my attention an article in TODAY. This was in the comments section of a recent blog post. To read the comments, see:

REITs with pedigree are safer? - Comments.


A few lines from the article concerned:

... it must be said that REIT managers have mostly had to acquire their properties on the higher side of valuations if only because it is the only way they can get the

REITs with pedigree are safer?

Many have told me that I am playing with fire investing in the REITs that I do and by now, regular readers would know how I would reply to them.

Some who do invest in REITs tell me that they only invest in "blue chip" REITs because these have strong "blue chip" sponsors and more likely to survive a downturn. They would still avoid the REITs I am invested in. I don't have a problem with that.

I

A S$50 shopping voucher from MasterCard?

Register your Singapore-issued MasterCard cards for ‘A Season of Giving’ and you could qualify for a S$50 shopping voucher! You could also be supporting the Singapore Children’s Society at the same time!

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Cambridge Industrial Trust: Templeton and acquisition.

In a blog post dated 14 October, I said that Cambridge Industrial Trust is worth another look as I expect its income to bump up in 2012 and 2013 without any need for further fund raising. It is interesting to note that subsequently on 1 November, Templeton became a substantial unitholder. Announcement here.


More recently, the Trust has proposed the acquisition of 3C Toh Guan Road East for S

K-REIT: Better buy now?

Unlike the recent rights issue for LMIR, there is little to be gained from selling units in K-REIT and buying the rights. The former so far touched a low of 88c while the latter, a low of 2.4c. 

Buying the rights at 2.4c would mean a total price of 87.4c per unit when they are converted into regular units.

In my blog post of 18 Oct, I said that "given my very small position in K-REIT, I will

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Stakeholders should worry as credit is tightening.

Credit is the lifeblood of businesses and credit is tightening.

Banks in the eurozone are finding it harder to get funding and they have begun repatriating funds from overseas. These banks now refrain from lending and liquidity is drying up. Eurozone governments are also struggling to raise funds and even France was recently forced to pay higher interest rates on newly issued debt.


"The euro

LMIR: Sell the rights?

For those who bought some LMIR rights in the fire sale recently, a question could have formed as to whether they should sell the rights and lock in some hefty gains which could be as much as 100%. That it took just two days means it is basically free money since it is within the contra period.


Indeed, from a trading perspective, why not? Traders would say that taking profit is never wrong. If

LMIR: Why did the rights plunge in price and what did I do?

To say that I was not surprised by the plunge in price of LMIR's rights is definitely untrue. I did expect further weakness but the steep plunge downwards was unnerving, made worse by the spike in trading volume. Going by the number of comments in my blog, many others were similarly affected.



So, do we press the panic button and start frothing at the mouth? Nah, we should get really greedy.

LMIR: Sinking rights.

LMIR's rights sank today. It gapped down, touching an intraday low of 4.4c before closing at 4.6c. Is it going to sink further tomorrow?



Thus far, I have only discussed LMIR's rights issue from the perspective of its fundamentals. What about a TA? For seasoned and orthodox practitioners of technical analysis, they will say that it is impossible to do a TA on this counter with only three

LMIR: Bought some nil-paid rights.

I made my first transaction in the stock market since my return to Singapore. I bought some LMIR nil-paid rights at 5.6c each. Some might ask why not buy LMIR units instead as they are trading at 38.5c each cum distribution of 1.06c now.


At a conversion price of 31c per rights, getting nil-paid rights now at 5.6c means a total price of 36.6c. With an estimated annualised DPU of 3.26c, post

Tea with AK71: A short break.

I have not been blogging for a few days. I did not even look at the stock market.

My portfolio is not a trading one. It is basically one that generates regular and reliable passive income. So, it is not unthinkable to just leave it alone while I take a short break.

I did receive a SMS from my broker today regarding LMIR's rights issue and how much I should transfer to subscribe to it. Other

Project 360: Girls' night out!

In the final episode of Project 360 brought to you by P&G (Olay) and Nuffnang, the girls get together for a night of fun, laughter and pampering while they catch up and find out who the winner of the series is!


Watch the final episode here:
 http://sg.churpchurp.com/AK71SG/share/olay360finalepisode

STI in retreat: Sound Global, Golden Agriculture, Keppel Corporation and REITs.

STI 2,789.35 - Down 66.42 pts.


Not a pretty sight, is it? Scream in panic? Run around in circles? Sell everything and jump off a cliff like lemmings? There is plenty of fear. What should I do? Stay calm and look out for opportunities. I have spent time looking at various counters and I will talk about a few here.

More than two years ago, I went in big on E-pure, the current Sound Global,

Singapore Kindness Movement.

I always believe in being courteous. However, there are times when I just feel like bashing in some people's faces. These are people who do not appreciate courtesy and are totally inconsiderate.

This world would be a much nicer place to live in if everyone is more considerate and courteous towards one another. Is it so hard to show consideration and courtesy?

Do you use ‘please’ and ‘thank you’

REITs and rights issues: Dilutive or not?

I was not the best Science student, that is for sure. I made the switch from Science to Arts at the advice of my school principal when I was in secondary school and that was probably the best advice during my school days in terms of my academic life.

I do, however, remember the scientific concept of "dilution". To me, it is quite simple. If I had half a glass of orange juice and I added half a

Cache Logistics Trust: 3Q 2011.

A DPU of 2.095c has been declared and this is an 8% increase year on year. Annualised at 8.38c, it would translate to a distribution yield of 8.38% at the last traded price of $1 per unit. Not bad. That would explain the strength of the unit price in the days running up to the announcement.


Occupancy: 100%.
Gearing: 30.4%.
Interest cover ratio: 8.3x.
Total assets: >$830m.
Financing cost reduced

Tea with AK71: My weaknesses (Part 2).

Not too long ago, I indulged in one of my weaknesses... on two occasions... at Andersen's of Denmark.



Visit 1: Fondue for one. I chose this because there were bits of fruits and being the rational me who is trying to lead a healthier lifestyle, it was a healthier choice. Wait a minute, a healthier choice in an ice cream outlet? Hmmm... Nah, I am over-analysing. Healthier, it is! ;p



Visit 2:

McDonald’s Monopoly has found its $80,000 cash winner.

I guess I will try to win the Volkswagen Touran now. Actually, just winning a Macbook Air would make me really happy. I need Tanjong Rhu!


See all remaining prizes at http://sg.churpchurp.com/AK71SG/share/mcd-monopoly2011-3

Get your game labels at McDonald’s restaurants today! Double labels on weekends! Good luck!

CPL, CMA and NOL: Resistance levels to look out for.

We had a very nice rally today. The upward march on the STI was almost uninterupted all the way from the start of the session. In an earlier blog post on 17 October, I mentioned that there seems to be a bias for further upward movement and it has taken almost two weeks to materialise.


Now that a rally is underway, for investors who are already vested, do we ask if the rally could continue

Tea with AK71: Healthy and economical lunch.

What am I having for lunch today?


This is easy to prepare and to bring to work. Easy to wash up too.

This meal is high in fibre and full of natural goodness. Lower in glycaemic index than ground oats, I also prefer raw rolled oats to instant oats which are pre-cooked and dried.

Although instant oats are convenient, just add hot water and they are ready to eat, they are not as chewy,

Mind Your Money: Budgeting.

I have the pleasure of watching "Mind Your Money" on XIN MSN this evening. The first episode is on budgeting. It is basically about managing personal cash flow.

If people were to ask me how I grew my money, I would say that I spend as little as possible and save and invest the rest. So, it all starts with budgeting.

I wrote a piece on wage slaves before which attracted quite a few comments.

Further credit tightening is almost a given.

I was talking to a friend whose family controls a public listed company in Singapore and he is very optimistic about Singapore, very confident that we will not suffer a recession. Although I reminded him that in the last global financial crisis, only China, India and Indonesia escaped a recession, he remains very optimistic. Is this optimism the norm?

Many think that the housing prices in

First REIT: Bumper distribution 3Q 2011.

Ex-rights, with a pro forma DPU of 6.4c for 2011, I estimated First REIT's fair value to be at 80c per unit many moons ago. This was based on an expectation that 8% distribution yield was fair for the REIT. With the latest announcement of a DPU of 1.92c for 3Q 2011, is the estimated fair value of 80c outdated and probably too low?


I still hold the units I bought during the last bear market at

Tea with AK71: Breakfast at Long John Silver's.

I think breakfast at Long John Silver's compared to McDonald's offers better value for money.



Thick slices of toast with turkey bacon, eggs and cheese. Yummy! I am not crazy about the hash brown though.



Iced Milo! Slurp!

Price: $5.10 with tea or coffee. Add 50c to upgrade to an iced Milo. :)

From their website:


Caution: Waiting time can be quite long if they are busy. I would usually

Sabana REIT: 3Q FY2011.

Sabana REIT together with AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT are my top investments at the moment. Together, they account for a lion's share of my passive income generated from investments in the Singapore stock market.


Sabana REIT has declared a DPU of 2.14c for 3Q FY2011. Based on today's closing price of 91c per unit, this represents a distribution yield of 9.4% based on an annualised DPU of

Old Chang Kee: Initiated a long position at 26c.

If we go out in the evenings or on weekends, we will see most of the restaurants packed and some of the more popular ones even have long queues. A friend of mine invested in Soup Restaurant which gives its shareholders a card that gives a 15% discount off the total bill for dining at their outlets.

Personally, I like going to Soup Restaurant too. However, I think of it as more upmarket, similar

K-REIT: 17 for 20 rights issue.

K-REIT will be seeking approval at an EGM for a rights issue priced at 85c per rights unit. This is to partially fund the purchase of Ocean Financial Centre. Mr. Market does not like this whole deal and sold down the units to a low of 93c this morning.

What do I think? Well, the whole exercise is expected to be DPU accretive which is something investors for income want to see. DPU is expected to

Hock Lian Seng: Insider buying.

There has been quite a bit of insider buying going on in Hock Lian Seng as its share price plunged in recent weeks to hit a new low of 23.5c. I know Hock Lian Seng to have a rather robust business although it is in a cyclical industry. So, I decided to take a look at its numbers.

Revenue for 1H 2011 reduced 32.3% compared to 1H 2010 due to the completion of  Marina Bay Station project. Other

NOL: A messy ascending triangle?

Could this be an ascending triangle I see in NOL's chart?

Although ascending triangles are usually seen as a continuation pattern in an uptrend, a breakout could send NOL's share price higher to test resistance provided by the descending 100dMA which is currently at $1.32.


The 20dMA is set to form a golden cross with the 50dMA and is likely to provide immediate support at $1.115 in case of a

Tea with AK71: Visit a sky garden.

In the last few years, sky gardens have become the rage or at least I think so. Many condominiums also have sky gardens these days and they are apparently good selling points.

The very enterprising Marina Bay Sands even charge a fee to enter their sky garden (aka SkyPark) which is probably the tallest one in Singapore at 200m above ground. Personally, I wouldn't bother paying $20 just to gain

Cambridge Industrial Trust: Worth another look.

I was looking at Cambridge Industrial Trust's latest presentation slides. It could be worth another look as its income could bump up quite meaningfully in 2012 and 2013.

Latest numbers:
Gearing: 33.1%
(No refinancing due till 2014.)
NTA/unit: 61.7c
Interest cover ratio: 5.1x
DPU: 1.082c

What I find attractive:
1. Built-To-Suit Project at Tuas View Circuit. Completion by 3Q 2012.
2.

Capitaland, CapitaMalls Asia and NOL: Closing charts.

CAPITALAND

Volume increased over the last session but the bulls were not strong enough to have the share price close above the 50dMA. Closing at $2.52 is where we find resistance provided by the declining 50dMA.



Although price did touch a high of $2.56, forming a white spinning top suggests indecision and is a sign of weakness.

The counter has, in the meantime, broken out of its immediate

CapitaMalls Asia: Watch the 50dMA.

The MACD has formed a higher low together with a higher low in share price last week. Momentum has clearly improved and we could have found a floor here, if not the bottom.


Closing at $1.25 in the last session meant that the resistance provided by the declining 50dMA was still valid. This morning, thus far, price action is flirting with this MA.

Could we see the share price closing above the

Capitaland: Positive divergence.

Capitaland spots a positive divergence. As price formed a new low on 4 Oct, it is clear a few sessions later that the MACD has formed a higher low. The MACD is a lagging indicator just like other momentum oscillators. So, things are usually clearer a few sessions later. Acting before a clearer picture forms would be to pre-empt.

That the MACD formed a bullish crossover with the signal line in

NOL: Found a floor.

It seems to me that NOL's share price has found a floor, if not the bottom.

If we were to draw a trendline connecting the highs since 5 Jan 11, it is obvious that the long term downtrend remains intact. This trendline approximates the declining 100dMA which makes this the MA to watch. Then, why do I say the share price has found a floor?


Looking at the MACD, we see that it has been rising

ARA: Divested at $1.26 and $1.30.

Trading volume for ARA expanded today, being the highest in six sessions, which helped to form a long wickless white candle. This is the most bullish of candles. Could we see its share price climbing higher tomorrow? We could.


However, I have completely divested my long position in ARA and would not be able to benefit from further appreciation in its share price, if any. Completely? Yes. My

Tea with AK71: A short fairy tale!

I would like to share this fairy tale (which could be a reality for some of us):


Thanks to a cboxer, Patty, for sharing this with me.

I hope you enjoyed it as much as I did. ;-p

ARA: Partial divestment at $1.18.

On 7 October, I said in a blog post that the 61.8% Fibo line "approximates $1.18 and this is also where gap close could take place if the resistance at $1.16 could be taken out convincingly". My overnight sell order at $1.18 was filled.


Closing at $1.205 is exactly where we find the declining 20dMA today. This also coincides with the declining trendline connecting the tops of 1, 9 and 21 Sep.

Courage Marine: Bought more at 10c per share.

For a while, it looked as if a double top was forming in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). Well, the potential double top formation has been negated as the BDI broke resistance and looks set to form a higher high.



As most of Courage Marine's business is on a per trip basis and at spot rate, a higher BDI is good news for the company. If the BDI continues to rise into winter, it could turn out to be

Tea with AK71: Alkaline water.

In recent months, I kept being bombarded by news about alkaline water. I hear about it on the radio. I read about it in the magazines and newspapers. I read about it in flyers given out at shopping malls. Is alkaline water really so amazing?


A few days ago, when I was shopping at NTUC Fairprice. I saw alkaline water on sale! These bottles were placed together with bottles of mineral water and

ARA: Partial divestment at $1.155.

When I was looking at ARA's chart last night, I decided that I should do a partial divestment. I would sell those shares I bought on 4 Oct, Tuesday.

Why? Volume was relatively thin. Up days accompanied by such thin volume are suspicious.

I decided that there would be resistance at $1.16 because that was the price at the start of two long black candle days and with high volume to boot.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 2Q FY2012.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT has suffered from negative sentiments and from some bigotry in the local investment community, no thanks in part to the acrimonious recapitalisation process of the former MI-REIT.

However, investors who were objective enough to recognise the stronger recapitalised REIT would have enjoyed some rather attractive income in the last two years.

AIMS AMP Capital

LMIR: Circular to unitholders.

Two days ago, LMIR issued to unitholders a circular regarding the EGM to be held on 20 Oct with regards to the proposed acquisitions of Pluit Village and Medan Fair as well as the proposed 1 for 1 rights issue.

The management provided two sets of numbers, one which looks at FY2010 and another looks at 6M 2011. I would like to be a bit creative with the numbers to determine if LMIR is worth

ARA: A trading buy?

2,531.02/-90.38/-3.45%

I remember reading an article recently in which Warren Buffet said he has his elephant gun ready and will scoop up undervalued companies if they should present themselves. With so much fear in the air and likely to get worse, we should do the same.
Do not feel fearful when there is so much fear in the air. Instead, get ready to load up on cheap stocks which, by the

LMIR: Will I subscribe to the rights issue?

It is clear that my complaint about the proposed rights issue is that it is not distribution yield accretive. In fact, it seems to me that the distribution yield could suffer quite significantly, post rights issue.

If I were to subscribe to the rights issue, it would be with the believe that the management will acquire more malls which are NPI yield accretive in the not too distant future using

Office S-REITs VS Industrial S-REITs (2).

I thought I should share some information which I have taken from CBRE's report in Q2 2011 as I have recently received questions from readers on REITs which derive income from office space rentals in Singapore.

For office space, it is expected that "vacancy levels rises (are) inevitable in the next 6 to 12 months. This is the result of increased levels of new supply coming on-stream in addition

LMIR: Proposed 1 for 1 rights issue.

I read with great interest the 1 for 1 rights issue proposed by LMIR. As regular readers know, I much prefer rights issue to private share placements as the former allows all unitholders to take part in the enlarged capital base of the REIT.


This rights issue is to raise some S$337m to help fund the purchase of two malls in Indonesia: Pluit Village and Medan Fair.  Pluit Village is to be

CapitaMalls Asia: Dual listing in Hong Kong.

Earlier in March, CapitaMalls Asia announced that it was exploring the option of a secondary listing in Hong Kong.

Today, it received in-principle approval and will list on Hong Kong's mainboard come 18 October.

"CapitaMalls Asia may not be raising new capital from its listing in Hong Kong, but the move will allow the mall developer to widen its investor base here in Hong Kong and by default

A movie: Real Steel!

When I was at the movies earlier this week, I saw the trailer for "Real Steel". Wow! I am so going to watch this!


This is a story set in the near-future where the sport of boxing has gone high-tech. It stars Hugh Jackman as Charlie Kenton, a washed-up fighter who lost his chance at a title when 2000-pound, 8-foot-tall steel robots took over the ring.

Now nothing but a small-time promoter,

Sabana REIT: Acquiring 21 Joo Koon Crescent.

Sabana REIT is recently on an acquisition spree. Today, it announced the proposed acquisition of 21 Joo Koon Crescent. With this latest acquisition which will be funded fully by debt, its gearing level will bump up to 35%.

Property: 21 Joo Koon Crescent.
Consideration: S$20.274m.
Remaining lease: About 43 years.

If all its recent proposed debt funded acquisitions should be successfully carried

ARA: Partial divestment at $1.20

I was hoping that ARA's unit price would retest resistance provided by the declining 20dMA yesterday after the rather nice white candle the day before. So, I was hoping that there would be a chance to sell closer to $1.30.


Unfortunately, yesterday's black candle was formed on the back of much higher volume as price tried unsuccessfully to move higher. The ADX is rising and the DIs are still

Tea with AK71: Ad by Abercrombie & Fitch is indecent!

On 28 August, I made a quick mention of the gigantic poster at Knightsbridge (the former Crown Prince Hotel) put up by Abercrombie & Fitch and how it caused distress to some people with more puritanical persuasion. They said it was lewd. Read blog post here.

This was a photo I took that day:


Indecent?

What if we were to put a 4 storey high statue of David by Michelangelo in the same location?

Do you want to be a millionaire?

Many people would like to be millionaires. There is something magical about having a million dollars in our bank account, it seems.

Of course, when we think about it, a million dollars these days is really not a big deal, especially when a DBSS flat in Tampines could cost almost as much!

I read an article in China Daily recently which is titled "After making a fortune, millionaires find a

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Have an iPad? Use Flipboard to follow my blogs.

I am probably one of the least tech savvy person around. So, for me to blog about technology is a rarity.

Ever since I started using an iPad, high technology is just a touch away. It is really a joy to use.

Recently, I was introduced to an app by a very good friend. The app is called "Flipboard".



The "cover" of Flipboard looks like the cover of magazines. It uses pictures from the

First REIT, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, ARA and Sabana REIT.

It is kind of late and I still have a long drive ahead of me. So, this will be a quick update with very simple charts.

My overnight buy order for First REIT at 76c was filled. My other overnight buy order at 74.5c was not filled although the unit price did go that low today.


Overnight buy order for AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT at 19.6c was filled. I thought that many people would want to

Making your first million dollars in real estate investment: Dreams and nightmares.

Often, we hear that investing in real estate is the fastest way to making the first million dollars.

We saw people in queues and offering blank cheques in buying frenzies for projects such as One Devonshire some two years ago. The buyers then would have bagged nice gains and many would have sold their properties by now.
Sometimes, the building specifications of the property do not even matter

Double dip recession or just very slow growth?

Stock markets around the world had a very bad week. Everyone it seems is expecting a global recession and the accompanying deflation.

In a truly deflationary environment, all assets will suffer and see their prices fall. Equities and precious metals were all sold down across the board, therefore.

However, reading an article in Bloomberg, it is interesting to note that in the USA, "railroads

What the very rich are doing with their wealth?

I read an article provided by Bloomberg News that Singapore will become the world's top wealth management centre by 2013, surpassing Switzerland and London.


It looks like our tiny island nation is attracting a lot of wealth from around the world and we are not just talking about HNW individuals. We are talking about super HNW individuals and families!

These families are setting up family

ARA: Initiated long position at $1.22.

I initiated a long position in ARA today at $1.22 a share. This decision is based on my TA last evening. Fundamentally, at $1.22, the estimated dividend yield is about 4% but investing in ARA is primarily for growth.


The counter's share price touched a low of $1.20 before closing at $1.205 on the back of very high volume. Such high volume sell down usually has some momentum to follow through.

ARA: Breaking support. Going lower?

I have been looking at ARA. The downtrend is persistent and I have yet to initiate a long position here.

Today, ARA's share price broke its previous low of $1.29, gapping down and touching an intra day low of $1.26 before closing at $1.27.


The DIs are negatively placed but the ADX shows that the downtrend is not a strong one. In fact, volume seems to be reducing as price weakens.

If this

Tea with AK71: Eldershield.

I am quite aware that I am ageing and, once in a while, I am reminded of the fact by other people.

Today, the government reminds me of this same fact by sending me a notice saying that I would be automatically insured under Eldershield come 31 December 2011.

Eldershield? Me? Wow, elder. This is cheerful.

So, being Singaporean, I want to know "how much"?

Annual premium: $174.96, payable till

CapitaMalls Asia: Directions, please.

On 15 August, I mentioned that pre-empting a trend reversal did not work out and I ceased buying more shares of CapitaMalls Asia. Then, I used the rebound later in the month to reduce exposure.

On the daily chart, it is interesting to note that the Bollinger Bands are narrowing once more. This reduction in volatility when interpreted together with a rising 20dMA that is on the verge of forming a

$120k annual passive income from S-REITs next?

With the end of 2011 more or less in sight, I decided to take a look at how my aim to generate at least $50K in annual passive income from the stock market has fared this year. Of course, compared to the end of 2010, many things have changed. Don't they say that the only constant in life is change?

Saizen REIT was my largest investment up till early this year. The massive earthquake that struck

First REIT: Could retest 84c high.

Just like Cache Logistics Trust, First REIT saw its unit price moving higher on the back of higher volume in the last session.

Unlike my position in Cache Logistics Trust, however, my long position in First REIT is much larger and I stand ready to sell into strength if the opportunity presents itself.


It seems to me that First REIT's unit price broke out of an ascending triangle pattern. If

Cache Logistics Trust: Further divestment at $1.

On 29 August, I mentioned that the mini double bottom, if valid, could see price go higher with a target of $1. On that same day, I partially divested my investment in the REIT as gap was filled at 96c.

On 8 September, I divested further at 98c which I thought was a rather stubborn resistance. The stochastics also showed the REIT to be very much overbought.

However, as is my usual style,

Year end vacation: Great deals!

If you are still planning to go on that year end vacation and missed NATAS, never fear! There are still great deals around!

As I am also planning year end vacations, I came across a few good deals but you have to book soon as prices tend to increase towards end of the year.


Phuket (3D/2N), second half of November 2011.
Package price for 2 persons: S$584.00
(includes all taxes and fees.)

Sabana REIT: 3A Joo Koon Circle and 2 Toh Tuck Link.

Sabana REIT is acquiring two more properties.

1. 2 Toh Tuck Link
Price: $39.8 m
Remaining lease: 45 years

2. 3A Joo Koon Circle
Price: $40.2 m
Remaining lease: 36 years

The purchases will be financed by debt.
With these acquisitions, gearing will be raised 33.7%.


Technically, trading of Sabana REIT's units is seeing decreasing volume as price hits a stubborn resistance at 89c. Although

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No change to my plan as I plan changes to my life.

Recently, I have not been blogging very much about the stock market or anything to do with investments, I am sure regular readers have noticed. There are various reasons for this but the primary reason is because I have put in place a plan for whichever direction the stock market may go.

If the stock market should trade sideways, I will keep the status quo and simply collect income from my

Tom Ford Nicole Sunglasses - Only US$129.99

I am not a fashionable person and I had no idea what was Tom Ford until a friend told me it is a luxury brand a few months ago.

This friend of mine also bought a pair of Tom Ford glasses. My glasses almost fell off my face when I heard the price!

If we must buy luxury brand goods, at least we should get them at good prices. Well, that's how I see it anyway.

From now through the 19th, you can

Tea with AK71: McDonald's shows us how!

We often come across signs at eateries which say "No studying." Although these signs do the job, they are not very friendly and they do nothing positive for the public image of the establishment as well.

We know the reason for these signs but couldn't they be worded nicely?



A good example of how it should be done!
Thumbs up for McDonald's!

Singapore Airlines: Slow to board the social media flight?

I might be slow here but I only read in The Business Times recently that SIA took over an unofficial facebook page. Apparently, the SIA facebook page was originally set up by fans and had almost 100,000 members.


Until almost two years ago, I didn't really know what was social media. OK, I heard of blogs, which I thought was a classy bog, and Twitter, which I thought was a noisy chatroom, and

Tea with AK71: Good food at good prices!

Recently, I had some good food at good prices:



Breakfast at Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf. 1 for 1. I paid $7.70 for two sets of the above plus two cups of tea. A great deal!



This was a treat because I always see a long queue at the Western Cuisine stall at Kopitiam, Bukit Panjang Plaza. I hate to wait too long for my food but there was no queue that day! $6.10 after discount! Not bad.

Carpark Not Enough!

Although there are cries of discontent in some quarters and this is amply evident in the last General Election as well as the Presidential Election, it seems that more HDB dwellers are doing better in recent years.

How do we know this? Wait for Jack Neo to make a movie "HDB Parking Lots Not Enough!", maybe.

I read an article in The Straits Times on my iPad today that the "pace of growth of car

Tea with AK71: My weaknesses.

When it comes to junk food, I have two big weaknesses: ice cream and chocolates.

The atas and delectable stuff from Haagen Dazs:




This costs several times more than a strawberry sundae from McDonald's but it was so good!

Burp.

Cache Logistics Trust: Partial divestment at 98c.

On 29 August, I blogged about partially divesting my investment in Cache Logistics Trust as the gap was filled at 96c. Today, my overnight sell order at 98c was filled.

After the gap at 97.5c was filled on 1 September, the REIT's unit price seems to be having difficulty clearing 98c, which is a natural candlestick resistance as well.


As the REIT's unit price does not seem to exhibit any form

CapitaMalls Asia: At resistance.

While chatting in LP's infamous cbox today, a cboxer, OT, said that he is queueing to sell some shares of CapitaMalls Asia at $1.395 because I said that is where gap filling could happen. That was based on TA which I did more than a week ago.

TA is dynamic. What is valid now might not be valid a week later. So, is this case any different?


Share price touched a high of $1.36 which is where we

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Consolidation and corporate rating.

Some readers left comments here in my blog while others wrote me emails asking me about the proposal by AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT to consolidate 5 units into 1.


Personally, I am not really concerned with this exercise. Why? The fundamentals will not change with this exercise. It is still the same REIT with the same fundamentals. As for whether the REIT's unit price will do better or

Tharman Shanmugaratnam has spoken.

I think Tharman Shanmugaratnam is a really brainy guy. He also did our country proud when he was selected as the Chairman of the International Monetary and Financial Committee.

When Tony Tan talks about the economy, I listen. When Tharman S. talks about the economy, I listen too and he has spoken.

"Tharman Shanmugaratnam told a conference that the world has now “entered a phase where there is a

Courage Marine: Added at 10.5c a share.

It has been some time since I wrote about Courage Marine. With the BDI in a downtrend, there was no reason to go long on this counter. The last time I did something pertaining to this counter was a divestment when news of a dual listing in Hong Kong was made known.

However, as I like the company, I have been tracking its performance which is of course closely tied to the BDI as most of its

Bullish on Noble, IndoAgri, Genting and DBS?

I was reading The Straits Times online edition. Yup! AK71 is catching up with the Times! I love this pun!

There is an interesting article by Andy Mukherjee titled "Don't get seduced by analysts' darlings" and he selected four stocks as examples.

Andy is of the opinion that "analysts are overly bullish. They are beginning to turn nervous, but are far from throwing in the towel."

He also said

Wage slaves should be fearful.

I had a conversation with someone who said he is living hand to mouth and that he is somewhat worried with how things are developing in the world now.



Source: Bloomberg.

The Eurozone debt crisis, the persistently high unemployment in the USA, the political instability in the Middle East and the credit tightening in China seem like a recessionary cocktail.

Although Asia is where we find

Tea with AK71: Durians tidak boleh?

This photo was taken at a MRT station on the Circle Line. See why people say Singapore is a "fine" country?



No durians but no fine if we were caught har?
Are the authorities partial to durians?

Does anyone know the reason why there is no fine for being caught with durians on MRT trains?

Could it be that the powers that be have not decided on how much the fine should be? If so, I have a

Sabana REIT: 90c sell order filled.

My overnight sell order at 90c was filled. Those units which were bought at 87c and 88c were divested. I liken the gains to locking in income distributions in advance.


As I still have a sizeable investment in Sabana REIT, divesting those bought at lower prices for capital gain does not seem like a bad idea with market volatility likely to be the norm for a while. I could well have

CapitaMalls Asia: Rebounding.

At this point in time, the recent upmove of CapitaMalls Asia's share price is still a rebound. The MACD made a bullish crossover with the signal line but momentum is still negative. Make no mistake. The downtrend is still intact.
Volume has been declining over the last three sessions. How do we interpret this?
Although the bears were roughed up three sessions ago, bulls seem to lack conviction

Tea with AK71: Sambal mooncake.

There was much talk about mooncakes in LP's infamous cbox over at Bully the Bear today.

Fancy having some sambal mooncake at tea time? This must be the most "innovative" mooncake I have ever had.



My parents got this in a box of mooncakes from Star Cruises.



Quite clever the way they separated the spicy centre from the lotus paste, using dried coconut as a wall.

The taste is

Cache Logistics Trust: Gap closed at 96c.

The unit price of Cache Logistics Trust closed the gap at 96c in the last session.  A white candle with an extremely long upper wick was formed, suggesting strong selling pressure at 96c. 96c is also where we find the flatlined 50dMA which should also act as resistance.



I decided last Friday to put in a sell order over the weekend at 96c for a partial divestment in case gap resistance should

Tea with AK71: Family, friends, Abercrombie & Fitch and BPA free water bottles.

I had a restive long weekend. Long weekend? Yes, for someone who has to work half days on weekends, this was a nice long weekend for me. Hmmm, well, I did visit a customer for slightly more than an hour on Saturday but that's not really work. Just delivered mooncakes and had a chit chat.

So, what did I do this "long weekend"? I had tim sum with my family, caught up with some friends and did some

CapitaMalls Asia: Gap closed at $1.325.

The last time I blogged about CapitaMalls Asia was on 15 August. At that time, I detailed the reason for not adding to my long position. That reason was technical in nature and is still valid today.

I did not sell as price went lower, saying I would only sell as price rebounds to test resistance. Downtrends are rivers of hope.

Yesterday, CapitaMalls Asia's share price rose dramatically on

Money continues to flow into Singapore.

Singapore continues to attract inflows of money. I have friends from USA and Europe who are parking their money in savings accounts in Singapore although they get only 0.1% interest. Why? The Singapore Dollar has been appreciating against their home currencies and is likely to get stronger.


Singapore also has a AAA rating when it comes to sovereign bonds. This has been attracting much attention

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Saizen REIT: Full Year 2011 results.

I have not blogged about Saizen REIT for some time now because there is nothing really significant to analyse after its CMBS for YK Shintoku was successfully paid up a few months ago.


I divested my investment in the REIT partially when its unit price rebounded after hitting a low in the aftermath of the triple disaster of earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis in March this year. This is

Dr. Marc Faber: How not to lose money?

I have the greatest respect for Dr. Marc Faber and his insights have so far been spot on. In a recent interview, he said "I am ultra-bearish about everything geopolitically. In an environment of money printing, we have to ask ourselves, how do we protect our wealth? ... Where do we allocate the money?"

In summary:

1. Treasuries:

"U.S. government bonds are junk bonds," Faber said. "As

Sleep well at night with a plan.

Today's selling in the stock market here has not affected all counters in equal measure. In fact, for the vast majority of my portfolio, the selling has not been a big thing.

When there is strong selling down in the market, I am more interested in buying but not indiscriminately, mind you. I have a plan and I am sticking to it like glue.

Regular readers might remember me saying that I would

Another bloodbath?

At this very moment, stock markets in Europe and the U.S.A. are down between 3+% to 6+%! Will Asian markets be drenched in another bloodbath tomorrow? Buckle up because it seems like it would be a rough ride.





What am I going to do? Stick to my plan. What else?

If some of the counters I am eyeing should fall to my target prices, I will collect more. I am pacing myself as there is no way of

Singapore Presidential Election 2011.

Read online articles on the upcoming Presidential Election during my lunch break.


The candidates and what they say:

Tan Jee Say (symbol: heart):
1. The primary role of the Elected President is to act as a check on a possible rogue government.
2. Under the Constitution, the president has blocking powers in only five specific areas which include the reserves and key appointment holders.
3. On

First REIT: Partial divestment at 79c.

I was working late today. Trying to figure out some computer related stuff and trying to get used to a new software. This is likely to remain a challenge for me at least over the next few days. I am definitely one of the least IT savvy people around but this is life, I guess.


Although I would like to crash into bed right now, I thought I should blog about my sell order for First REIT at 79c

CapitaMalls Asia: Pre-emptive strikes failed.

Quite a few regular readers and friends are perplexed why I was buying shares in CapitaMalls Asia when it is clearly in a persistent downtrend. I replied that I was pre-empting a possible reversal as it looked like a positive divergence could emerge. Today, that possibility went out the window as the MACD formed a lower low as price weakened.


So, the technical reason I had for buying more

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Should we be staying invested or in cash?

All of us know how pathetic interest rates on savings are for quite some time now and with the U.S. Fed pledging to keep interest rates low for another two years or so, it does seem as if low interest rates are here to stay, even in Singapore.

We also know that the ultra low interest rate environment is pushing up prices of almost everything. Inflation? You bet. Is this going to persist? It

Sabana REIT: Recent developments.

The REIT has proposed the acquisition of 39 Ubi Road 1. The property has a remaining tenure of about 40.4 years and is valued at $32m. The vendor, Ascend Group Pte. Ltd., will take a master lease of the entire premises for a term of 5 years. Extension works is ongoing and will add approximately 41% to the building's existing gross area. The acquisition will be funded by debt and will increase

Rules for investing in difficult times.

There isn't very much that I want to say tonight because I have probably said all that I want to say in my recent blog posts. I just did some reading which is something I do every evening and came across an article by Aaron Task who is someone I enjoy watching on Tech Ticker.

Aaron shared 4 time honoured rules:

1. If you can't take the heat, get out!  This is something I did not talk about but

Why do I not panic? Added Sabana REIT.

In my last blog post and probably a couple more before that, I mentioned that we should stay calm and rational, have a plan and act upon it. This is my personal mantra and it has not changed.

Some wonder how I could act so confidently and decisively. Here are some reasons:

1. I am not investing using borrowed funds or funds which I need in the near future for other purposes.

2. Of my total

Bloodbath continues and AK71 went shopping!

Another day of heavy selling. Lots of panic! Pandemonium even! What should we do? Stay calm and be rational. Have a plan and execute it. I took my own advice and did exactly that.

I am currently about 50% invested in the stock market. Of this 50%, about 80% is invested for income and much of this is from S-REITs. Currently, my five largest investments in S-REITs are:

1. AIMS AMP Capital

CapitaMalls Asia: Did I panic and sell?

CapitaMalls Asia did not start the day higher than the closing price of the last session. So, the bullish reversal signal formed in the last session failed to deliver and price touched a lower low of $1.21.

So, did I panic and sell? No, I only sell when prices test resistance, not when they are going lower. Downtrends are rivers of hope.


The MACD still looks like it could form a positive

Waiting to increase exposure to AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and First REIT.

Continuing from my last blog post, which I said we should get ready and be greedy, I am interested in accumulating more units of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and First REIT as well if prices should weaken in the next few sessions.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, as mentioned in my last blog post, has the honour of closing with its unit price unchanged in a sea of red in the last session.

STI down 3.6% on heavy selling! Be fearful? Get ready and be greedy!

Today, almost all of the counters in my watchlist registered a loss. Almost? Yes, although none of the counters registered an increase in share price, one counter closed unchanged. That honour goes to AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT.  This demonstrates the relative resilience of the REIT's unit price. Given the bloodbath seen in the stock market today, this is impressive.


The action in the

CapitaMalls Asia: Bought more at 161.8% Fibo line.

Just two sessions ago, I bought shares of CapitaMalls Asia at $1.335. Then, I commented on the very high volume behind the long black candle and wondered if price could go lower.

I used Fibo lines to estimate where the stronger supports would be in case of further selling and $1.265 is where the 161.8% Fibo line approximates.


My overnight buy order at $1.265 was filled this morning as price

A sea of red! Have a plan and execute it!

US stock market plunged 5% overnight. European markets plunged overnight. The Singapore market opened some 100 points lower. Such ferocity in selling, I have not seen in some time.

Panic is palpable. Fear can be petrifying. However, if we have a plan, fear could be less so.


My plan is to continue investing for income and I like AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Sabana REIT.

Today, I bought

HPH Trust: 2011 Interim Financial Results.

On and off, I would look at HPH Trust because there seems to be so much interest in this business trust from readers. Anyway, as I invest primarily for income these days, HPH Trust fits into my strategy but is it attractive enough for me?


Before I continue, I will say that  I do not like the fact that it is denominated in a foreign currency and in US$ to boot. On my investment journey, I have

CapitaMalls Asia: TA and FA.

CapitaMalls Asia sank lower although it is still trading cum dividend. I added to my long position at $1.335/share today based on the following considerations:

1. Fundamentally, CMA has a NAV/share of $1.52. At $1.335, it is trading at a 12+% discount to NAV. CMA is likely to do better in time.

2. Technically, the MACD seems set to form a higher low as the counter's share price forms a lower

Choppy, choppy, chop, chop.

Global stock markets weakened today after strengthening the session before on news that the debt ceiling in the USA would most likely be raised successfully. Why?

Fundamentally, raising the debt ceiling means that the USA would not default and they will be able to continue paying their bills. Sounds like a good thing. However, closer at hand are still many problems which are worrying Mr. Market

Sheng Siong's IPO and the American debt ceiling.

I received two emails today from readers. The first asked me about Sheng Siong's IPO and the second commented on how the Americans have come to a compromise on raising the debt ceiling.

To the first reader, I said that it has been a long time since I took part in any IPO, believing that they do not offer good deals for investors most of the time. I rather wait and see if I could get the shares

Tea with AK71: Tartlets and a view of the city.

Life is unpredictable. Sometimes, we get nice surprises and, sometimes, we get nasty ones. Today, I had a surprise which resulted in me being quite free of work. So, I suppose this is a nice surprise. However, I found myself wondering what to do today.

I did the laundry in the morning, had breakfast with a friend in town and came back home. After washing up, I checked my blog, replied to

U.S. Senate scuttled emergency legislation!

So many want to have a two party government in Singapore. Personally, I always say that if something is not broken, don't fix it. Seeing how the two parties in the US government are acting, I am thankful Singapore is not on the same boat.


With National Day just round the corner, a week after the 2 August deadline for the US to raise its debt ceiling, I am counting our blessings. We never know

How will a default by the US affect Singapore?

I read an article in the newspapers today and it confirmed my fears that Singapore could once again suffer a severe downturn if the US government does not raise its debt ceiling come 2 August. Many would have to face extreme hardship once more.

Salient points in the article:

1. US banks account for some 15% of domestic lending in Singapore.

2. If US defaults, US banks will withdraw their funds

Banks are slashing jobs!

Banks are retrenching. Should we be worried? Is a recession round the corner? Your guess is as good as mine. Best to have our emergency funds ready just in case. If we are thinking of buying shares on the cheap, make sure we have a war chest ready as well. Oh, make sure it is not empty. ;)

HSBC will slash more than 10,000 jobs as part of the global banking giant's recently announced cost-cutting

Cache Logistics Trust: 2Q 2011.

The decision to use funds from the partial divestment of Saizen REIT to invest in Cache Logistics Trust at the right prices a few months ago continues to be rewarding.

The management has declared a DPU of 2.086c for 2Q 2011 which is much higher than the DPU of 1.71c the same quarter last year in 2010. At the high of 99c/unit hit this morning, the REIT had an annualised distribution yield of

Sabana REIT: 2Q FY2011.

I have been accumulating units in Sabana REIT even after it went XD the first time round, convinced that it has many high quality assets and that the income distribution is sustainable for the foreseeable future.

Last night, it released results for 2Q FY2011 and results were largely in line. DPU of 2.18c was declared, slightly less than my expectation of 2.2c. At the current unit price of

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Higher DPU and 20 Gul Way.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT has once again delivered results which are above expectations. I was expecting a quarterly DPU of 0.5c but, instead, 0.53c has been declared. XD: 2 August. Payable on 14 September.

What's more? This is only 96.8% of total amount for distribution, not 100%. Annualised, it would be 2.12c which means a distribution yield 9.64% at the unit price of 22c/unit.

Gearing

Noble Group: Another quick trade.

Technical analysis (TA) is dynamic. Day to day, charts have new information and TA will provide new insights. Not too long ago, I wondered if Noble Group's share price might hit $1.90. Read blog post here.

If you guess that I must have been waiting to sell at $1.90, you are right. However, doing a bit of charting last night revealed that we might not see $1.90 although there is still a chance

Golden Agriculture: 200wMA cleared.

Golden Agriculture closed above the 200wMA in the last session. Cleared of this hurdle, we could see its share price going higher from here.


It is interesting to observe that the 50wMA has been crucial as support, seeing how share price bounced off the line each time it was tested in the past.

It would not be unrealistic to expect any retest of the 50wMA to see strong buying interest.

First REIT: 2Q 2011 results.

First REIT's results are more or less in line with forecast with a DPU of 1.58c for 2Q 2011. The REIT will go XD on 28 July and income distribution is payable to unitholders on 29 August.

The REIT's strong numbers have been mentioned before and here's the update:

NAV/unit: 78c
Interest cover ratio: 15x
Gearing: 13.8%

I am pleasantly surprised that its management is planning to have a special

Cambridge Industrial Trust: 2Q 2011 results.

The last time I blogged about this REIT was on 28 April and I was so negative about it that some readers divested their shares in the REIT straightaway. Read blog post here.


Now, I have to say this again that my blog is purely to share my thoughts, a place where I think aloud, so to speak. It is not to exhort anyone to buy or sell anything.

In a reply to a reader, OT, I mentioned that I would

CapitaMalls Asia: Interim dividend declared.

Today, during lunch hour, when I read that the management is declaring an interim dividend of 1.5c per share (XD on 31 August and payable on 16 September), I immediately put in a buy order. I feel that it is a generous payout for a growth company and testament to the fact that it is doing well.

2Q 2011 EPS: 4.2c
1H 2011 EPS: 5.5c
NTA per share: $1.52

See presentation slides here.


Its share

NOL: A quick trade.

On 12 July, NOL formed a white candle and I mentioned that I was wary of its reliability as it was formed on relatively low volume. I also used Fibo lines to determine where stronger supports could be found. Then, I added to my long position at these supports. See blog post here.

On 19 July, NOL formed a white hammer and I wondered if price could rise to test $1.45. See blog post here.


For the

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Noble Group, NOL and CapitaMalls Asia.

Just a quick look at some charts:


Noble Group's share price formed a bullish engulfing candle on high volume. If we turn on the MA envelope, we see how it touched the lower boundary and bounced off. Stochastics is in the oversold region and could turn up. Could share price rise to $1.90?


NOL's share price formed a white hammer on high volume. Similarly, Stochastics is in the oversold region

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Sabana REIT: Safe to buy now?

Someone who managed to get some units of Sabana REIT at IPO asked me if it is safe to buy more units of the REIT now? Before the counter announced its first income distribution of 3.04c, I blogged about how I felt Sabana REIT was a great investment then.

Of course, there were nay sayers and people who told me I was wrong. There were also many who got in at the REIT's IPO and were burnt,

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Noble Group: Caught a falling dagger?

Today, for the first time ever, I became a shareholder of Noble Group. I will confess that I do not understand the business and that going long here is taking on quite a bit of risk. Then, why did I do it? Let me share with you what's on my mind.

The share price of Noble Group is, undoubtedly, in a downtrend. I drew two trendlines, one connecting the lower highs and one connecting the lower lows

NOL: A white candle.

A white candle formed on NOL's chart today. For most of the day, I saw a black spinning top after its share price gapped down at the start of the day. So, the rather large buy up, after market closed, which pushed up NOL's share price to close 1c higher was somewhat surprising.


However, the white candle was formed on lower volume compared to the previous session's black candle. Share price

CapitaMalls Asia: TA update.

CapitaMalls Asia's share price did not experience the kind of explosive upswing Capitaland's did in the last session. However, it looks promising too in a subdued way as volume was pretty decent as price moved up a bit.

Daily:

 Weekly:

We could see gap closed at $1.55 in time. This would probably also coincide with the declining 50dMA sometime next week. Judging from the highs in the last two

NOL: TA update.

NOL has been one big disappointment. So, is this the fault of the counter? Nope. We can only be disappointed if we have expectations and when they are not met. It was a mistake and I will accept it as such.

However, downtrends are rivers of hope. NOL's share price could be overdue for a rebound. This does not mean that I think a rebound is imminent though.


Look at the daily chart and we could

Capitaland: TA update.

What an amazing run up Capitaland's share price had in the last session. That the run up was accompanied by huge volume is good news for bulls. Short sellers were probably scrambling to cover their positions in the last session, surprised by the buying strength.


Anyone who added to their long positions or initiated one in the last few sessions would be wise to search for exit points, if they

Golden Agriculture: 68c support.

In my last blog post, I said that chances of a breakdown in price are higher. I have been proven wrong by Mr. Market, once again demonstrating the risky business of guessing Mr. Market's future movements.

Golden Agriculture's share price touched a high of 71.5c on very high volume before closing at 70.5c in the last session.


People ask me if the price could go higher? Well, only Mr. Market

First REIT: Yield accretive purchase in South Korea.

First REIT has bought a hospital in South Korea. This has a nett property income (NPI) yield of 9% and is a yield accretive purchase. The purchase is most likely going to increase the distribution per unit (DPU) for unitholders since it will be fully funded by debt, increasing its gearing level from 13.8% to 16.4%. Expectations of a higher DPU could account for the recent strength of the REIT's

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Singapore industrial property market picking up!

People tell me to be careful about investing so much in industrial property S-REITs. They think it is going to experience a contraction in demand. I personally do not think so and shared my research here in my blog.

"According to Colliers International, average monthly gross rents for prime factory and warehouse spaces surged between 6 and 7 per cent on-quarter. This was the fastest quarterly

Worst ever NDP song!

Legal issues aside, this song is really mindless.

We are celebrating National Day! We are suppose to celebrate Singapore's achievements and vision for the future!

How does this "Fun Pack Song" fit into the picture? It is demeaning! The organising committee should be taken to task! Definitely in bad taste.

Haresh Sharma, this is a joke!

I want Newater and I want a cold drink
You and me,

Hyflux secures funds of S$150m.

The Tuaspring desalination plant is part of a project expected to cost S$890 million, which the firm said it is "on track" to secure funds for this second tranche.

More fund raising exercises on the way, I think.

Related posts:
Hyflux: 6% perpetual Class A preference shares.
Hyflux: $800 million bridge loan.

Male cheerleader brings it on!

Thoroughly entertaining and somewhat disarming!

Golden Agriculture: FA and TA.

I retain a very small long position in Golden Agriculture. The price of crude palm oil (CPO) has made a new low for 2011, closing at RM3,040.

"Inventories are likely to accumulate in the coming months, unless prices fall to around MYR2,700-MYR2,800/ton, levels that might spur strong physical demand for the commodity and prompt traders to buy on dips, said a trading executive in Kuala Lumpur...

Capitaland: Weekly chart.

Capitaland seems to be enjoying a respite.

A quick look at the weekly chart suggests that a retest of the declining 20wMA as resistance is likely. It could happen this week or the next couple of weeks.


If I were to hazard a guess, it could be at $3.14 if it should happen as that is also where we see some resistance provided by the candlesticks. However, volume declined in the last couple of

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Silver: Price formed another lower high.

Staying cautious on silver has been the right thing to do. The declining 50dMA seems on track to forming a dead cross with the 100dMA in the near future with silver's price forming another lower high this week, closing the week at US$ 33.70 an ounce.


All eyes are on the 200dMA and whether silver's price could stay above this long term moving average. If the support holds up, we could see bulls

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 2nd AGM.

Northtech
Some readers are concerned that I am divesting my investment in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. Is there a change in its fundamentals? Is it going down from here?

 I did blog about my reasons for partially divesting my investment in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. In a nutshell, I am just re-balancing my portfolio to reduce over-exposure to this REIT. It is a risk management

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CitySpring Infrastructure Trust: Rights issue.

I divested my investment in CitySpring Infrastructure Trust last year in October. At that time, the Trust was trading at 60.5c/unit. Long regarded the investment as a mistake, the divestment was premised upon the Trust's weak fundamentals and relatively low distribution yield.

The Trust's last done price was 53.5c/unit today and its managers announced a rights issue to raise about $210.2

Mr. Market is always right.

I blogged about my partial divestment of Saizen REIT as price gap closed at 15c. I still retain more than 10% of my original investment in the REIT. See blog post here.

As Saizen REIT was the largest investment in my portfolio, making up some 40% of total funds invested (excluding funds in my frozen portfolio), the amount of money released was no small change. Leaving the money in the bank was

Saizen REIT and Sabana REIT.

Moody’s Investors Service has upgraded Saizen REIT’s corporate family rating to B1 from Caa1 following the conclusion of their rating review.

The stable outlook reflects Saizen REIT's improved liquidity and the absence of material refinancing needs in the next two years.

Read announcement here.


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Golden Agriculture: Strong resistance.

I am still bullish on the long term fundamentals of crude palm oil. The more robust demand for the vegetable oil in emerging economies, especially in China and India, will provide a floor to any correction in price.

A correction? Yes, prices do not go up in a straight line. If prices do move higher, they climb a wall of worries.

The share price of Golden Agriculture is finding it hard to move

Selling shares of Capitaland and CapitaMalls Asia.

I did a contra on the shares bought earlier in the week for Capitaland and CapitaMalls Asia yesterday. To me, the way in which the share prices were moving higher on lowering volume did not look sustainable.
Downtrends are rivers of hope, no doubt, but I would not get too hopeful especially if the technicals hint of a weak rebound. Lock in some gains and let others take on the higher risk of

Balancing AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Sabana REIT.

I have been kept busy the last couple of days. By the time I took a shower and called it a day, it was technically night since it was already past 11pm. It is the same thing today. Hopefully, I will be more settled in another week or so. Till then, I can only hope to blog more regularly.

So, what have I been doing in the stock market?


I increased my investment in Sabana REIT while reducing my

The long awaited technical rebound.

I keep saying that downtrends are rivers of hope and that prices do not go down in a straight line. This is quite natural but in despair and desperation, it is all too easy to give up and throw in the towel. This is capitulation.

Capitaland and CapitaMalls Asia are both in downtrends. This is quite obvious. With no signs of reversals to the upside, I recently added to my long positions with the

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CapitaMalls Asia: Bought at $1.37.

Similar to Capitaland, I am still waiting for a technical rebound in the share price of CapitaMalls Asia before reducing exposure. The counter is dreadfully oversold and a technical rebound is probably overdue. However, in extremely bearish circumstances, a counter could stay oversold for a very long time. As always, a huge dose of luck is required.
Today, I bought more shares of CapitaMalls Asia

Golden Agriculture: A steeper trendline resistance.

Has Golden Agriculture's share price turned bearish? I would not say bearish exactly since the uptrend that started on 23 Feb 2011 is still intact. However, the inability to form a higher high is worrisome. Having said this, price could go as low as 66c in the next couple of sessions and the uptrend would still be intact.


Looking at the chart, the trendline resistance that started on 30 May

Staying positive on S-REITs.

In the recent weeks, shares of property developers, telecoms companies, commodities companies, shipping companies, gaming companies etc have mostly declined in price.

So, in a sea of red, is staying uninvested the way to go? Very probably, many are doing just that. Personally, I am staying invested and mostly in selected S-REITs. In an environment of greater volatility, S-REITs' unit prices

Capitaland: More downside?

My purchase of more shares in Capitaland yesterday at $2.81 per share, unfortunately, did not turn out well. Today, its share price closed at $2.75, the day's low. There are some very determined shortists. The bears have won for now. Well, this is the risk one has to accept if one were to go long in a downtrend when there are no clear reversal signals. Too bad for me.

I am going to employ Fibo

Golden Agriculture: Contra at 68.5c.

Golden Agriculture saw 90,289 lots changed hands today with 15,147 lots done at 68.5c after market closed.



In my last blog post on Golden Agriculture, I identified 68.5c as the immediate resistance as provided by a confluence of the 20d, 50d and 100d MAs. So, I put in a sell order last night for those units which I bought at 66c yesterday. My sell order was filled, locking in a gross gain of

Capitaland: Average buy price of $2.81.

Readers might remember that I said I was waiting for a chance to reduce exposure to this counter. It means waiting for a rebound to reduce at resistance. I do not like selling as prices are on their way down. Of course, as I have mentioned before, this is also a flaw in my methods. If there should be no rebound, then, it is more stocks for the freezer. However, if we believe that downtrends are

Golden Agriculture: Bought at 66c.

Been another long day and I just settled down at 11pm or so. Will be another couple of weeks before I settle into a new routine. Until then, I will be blogging sporadically.

Today, my buy order for some shares in Golden Agriculture at 66c was filled. I also have another buy order at 65.5c which was not filled.


65.5c is at support provided by the trendline which started on 23 Feb. So, buying

Cheap shopping and makan in Johor Bahru?

I have not updated my blog in two days and I am suffering from withdrawal symptoms! So, what have I been up to in the evenings? They were spent packing and moving stuff. When I say moving stuff, it means moving stuff from the city fringe to the remote western part of Singapore. Imagine the journey, to and fro! Of course, there would be some cleaning up as well. Actually, a lot of cleaning up.

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My diet and dietary supplements.

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CapitaMalls Asia and Capitaland: Daily versus Weekly.

The possibility of a positive divergence panning out for CapitaMalls Asia still exists. With a lower low in its share price, the MACD has stayed at a higher low. However, it seems to be having some difficulty making a positive crossover with the signal line.


I decided to look at the weekly chart and found that the MACD has just gone lower than the previous low. A lower low on the MACD in the

An elaboration on my methods.

Someone asked me why have I given up on NOL. Naturally, he asked this after reading my blog post on NOL last night which was a rather short blog post and quite unlike my usual style. Well, the facts were simple and brevity was appropriate.

The reason for buying more shares in NOL is no longer valid, from a technical perspective. I buy in a downtrend only when I see the building up of a positive

NOL: Positive divergence negated.

NOL's positive divergence has been negated. The ADX suggests a strengthening downtrend.


After strong moves downwards, a rebound is possible and if it were to test resistance, it would be a good opportunity to reduce exposure.